Marriage of Connivance

Asia’s Threesome Turns Four -Yoon Young-kwan

Relations among the region’s three major powers, China, South Korea, and Japan, are burdened both by territorial disputes and by the bitter historical legacies of Japanese colonialism. Of course, economic interdependence has deepened over the past three decades, but nationalism remains a convenient tool for political mobilization – and of manipulation for domestic and diplomatic purposes.
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Though the history of the trilateral dialogue between China, Japan, and South Korea is short, it marks a new and constructive effort toward regional cooperation. This kind of pragmatic and functional approach, if strengthened, promises to generate momentum for cooperation on more sensitive security issues.

At least so far, security relations between South Korea and Japan, both US allies, and China have been more or less confrontational. Strengthening these two countries’ relations with China would increase the possibility of building a new, peaceful order for Northeast Asia. Indeed, measures aimed at creating a climate of genuine trilateral cooperation are the only effective way to improve regional security. Keep Reading

Cycle of friendship: Enemy from the yesterday the bosoms buddies today, the buddies from today the enemy of tomorrow!  Wonder how Russia fit into this Threesome and Foursome? It can be very powerful, but where is army strategy and energy strategy fit into all that? Wonder G8 Summit the Russian president and US president had a bosom buddy Mac-cheesy diplomacy, long lost friends gosh… bit too much…or..!???  

YSK-W

Oil and the Economy

IMF Sees Oil Prices Staying High

• Production constraints limiting increase in supply of oil


• Growth in emerging markets, particularly China, boosting demand

• Policies should aim at easing economies’ adjustment to increased oil scarcity
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Oil  prices are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future and IMF economists say that governments should be looking to back sustainable alternative sources of energy.
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Threats to oil supplies, including geopolitical risks, imply that oil scarcity could be more severe and may materialize in large and abrupt changes. The negative global growth effects would be correspondingly larger

The fundamental; supply and demand.   Scarcity oil the demand is much greater than supply. Here Reuters is also  "There is a risk that the tensions between demand and supply trends could intensify again and prices could rise rapidly."
 
The fact is; If this Libya crisis dragging on, the supply shock we have seen from the history, credit to the tensions in the Oil producing Libya Middle East is potentially fatal for the global economy, higher fuel prices to lead to a threat to the fragile recovery. We also worry this Middle East crisis, about the another fact, as we have seen through the world financial crisis, about a prolonged oil price rise, according to the IMF – it could cause the sort of financial instability that was responsible for triggering the another financial crisis.

Also in a period of rising prices, oil exporting countries,  are very happy about their fat surpluses, while importers(most of the countries are) will see  their deficits rise higher. That is imbalances: the capital flows they generate, that is the primary sources of instability in the global economy which we have seen,  that is we should worry about as the last crisis recovery still fragile.

YSK-W

Libya and the World Economy

Paul Krugman argues that really the problem was global demand.

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With populations and incomes steadily increasing in Asia, there seemed to be an inexorable rise in global energy demand.
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Instead, what the higher oil price will probably mean this time round - but only if it remains elevated for several months, and starts being passed through to consumers - is a further squeeze on household budgets
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The dilemma for Western monetary policy is particularly unpleasant, because the only way for them to keep inflation down is by punishing households in their countries even more by increasing their borrowing costs
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And if it means the world gets a stable and democratic Middle East, then perhaps it is a price worth paying.

Crude Oil Declines From 30-Month High on Demand Signals From U.S., China

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The conflict in Libya is the bloodiest in a wave of uprisings that has toppled the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt and spread to Algeria, Bahrain, Oman, Syria and Yemen. Oil prices have climbed 18 percent since the ouster of Tunisian President Zine Abidine Ben Ali on Jan. 14.
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New York futures also declined after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said late yesterday that policy makers must watch inflation “very closely” for evidence that rising commodity costs are having more than a temporary impact on consumer prices.

Yes demand and supply again, we are living in a finite world, everything limited, scarcity natural resources. That is why we need innovation and discovery new reserve, but our limited capacity not fast enough these  meet the demand either, so the efficiency that is another innovation-- within what we have. That is why the world must understand what mean Libya civil war is. Whole world suffered last few years. USA think because of the distant, Libya problems is not really theirs but Europeans. I see different way. USA is the biggest economy world, their investment around world much impact on this economic down turn directly indirectly. e.g. less sell cola and big Mac, less money for the USA coffer. If Libya war drags on, so the Libya oil can not get out, who know the OPEC increases price whatever they want again or it gives overall impact on proximity, fundamentals it can be measureable short but immeasurableness side of long-run overall impact on the world economy, that case USA, the biggest looser as it is the biggest economy. I know President Obama now bidding second terms, every steps he moves for Americana wishes, this is immediate effect on USA economic too, so USA might help for Libyan fighter winning their battle that is looking bright for all around. Who know their slink super wiz technology kill Gaddafi off! that would be very nice indeed!

YSK-W

The 25 Best Financial Blogs USA

Aplomb of your reading
Via Krugman Blog this is The 25 Best Financial Blog
So I read first and find out first.
Make sure your morning busy to read all that blogs gosh!
Blog here blog there everywhere blog
Your brain cover up with blog-hood

YSK-W

The Oil and Revolutions

All the Due Course of Revolutions, left high oil prices, this might slow down world wide economic recovery! Hoping we are not going to these revolutions takes a long time, so thus world need to support the legitimate revolutions. Also our attitude toward the oil rich countries, not as pumping gas stations but mutually beneficial relationship both side, this is only possible when these countries have open honest democracy, and their political satiability.  The below is NYT report the the market trend, re:  Oil Prices Rise on Reports of Disruptions in Libya

Here is also International Energy Agency report Fact on Libya’s Oil and Gas  and read more IEA Home page.

Here is a nice article Tom Friedman NYT, about what sort of relationships of rest world and the oily Arabian countries, that has been “a rotten string of gas pumping stations” as they pumped humped… together...

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Ground Breaking Food Prices

"Four main factors are seen as driving prices higher: weather, higher demand, smaller yields and crops diverted to biofuels."   Read more…



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Hey You-Human, All Blaming Yourself!

Here is Krugman stuck into another food story; weather, result of YOU! You-human made green house gas is the major disruption of environment, so food price is highjack by environment, origin of disasters are you-human made, so hey you-human, all blaming yourself! Because of bad weather; bad harvest, unable to just-in-time delivery so on…

“While several factors have contributed to soaring food prices, what really stands out is the extent to which severe weather events have disrupted agricultural production. And these severe weather events are exactly the kind of thing we’d expect to see as rising concentrations of greenhouse gases change our climate—“

This one from  his blog

"...But food is a physical commodity, and plays in the financial markets can only move the price to the extent that they affect physical flows and stocks."

Goes with his nice simple exotic model of the market for a physical commodity

Stocking up food at storages and waiting for  the price  goes up but also another cost consider; e.g.  land, utility and labour cost so on, there is life -span  how long food able to be  keep inside storage, even grain also, it would be short period time,   remember most of food is “JIT” delivery is important,  is not same as cotton or metal.  

Here is another things to read


Here and Here relations of CO2, from Barry Brook also interesting article with beautiful pictures goes with clean energy – wastage nuclear --- guarantee 1000 years of clean energy supply for us!

YSK-W

Sky Rocking Food Prices

Why food price is sky rocking?  Demand and supply simple!  From Prof Krugman blog, it is all about demand and supply, then you know what is the price expect you have to pay what you want! There is always substitute though; e.g. NASA -- Kepler Planet Hunter Finds 1,200 Possibilities for substitute to the earth! We might all migrate another heavenly planet someday, there is always nice weather revolves around human need,  Eden wiht full of  forbidden Apples instead of rotten bananas becase of the nasty Yasi. We all become ETs; our heads are bigger than out limb by adopting new environment. There is always  substitute for sky rocking food prices  for starve!!

So the update result is the  picture below and here read

Here   is also another article interest you.

Friedman’s also the NTY article relation of the Egyptian Revolutions and Middle East political situation.  

YSK-W

Oh-God-We’re-All-Gonna-LIVE!!

This from Prof Krugman’s blog. The correlation  between Inflation and Stock Prices.

"Powerful evidence that the big problem is demand, not structural -It’s easy to find a correlation between two macro variables, as the same sort of factors (inflation, output growth, interest rates) tend to affect all sorts of financial and macro variables." Sumner says.

“…Regressions between 2003 and 2010 of the daily percentage change in the S&P 500 on the TIPS spread measuring inflation expectations show little correlation between asset prices and expected inflation from 2003 until early 2008. However, since early 2008 the correlation between changes in stock prices and in inflation expectations has been strongly positive and statistically significant.” Glasner says

“…stock prices have had a positive correlation with expected inflation since 2008, strongly suggesting that aggregate demand is at the heart of our problems."  Krugman says.

The below picture is the time-varying correlations S&P Index 500 v DGS10-DFII10 as:

All of them are sing their beloved Kenyan aggregate demand as to their Parrot mantra! So what we see in here Oh-God- we’re –all-gonna -live Oh-God- we’re –all-gonna -live. I say.

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Origin of Headless Commodities Price

Blaming the Fundamental: Straightforward “Demand and Supply” nice Prof Krugman says,  don’t blaming innocent speculators, they are only  products of the fundamentals,  blaming the fundamental, the demon supply and demand as the below picture tells ten thousands stories or more:   

And he asks and answers

Up at the top are cotton and iron ore. What’s going on up there?

First and foremost, China: it’s clear from news coverage that Chinese demand is driving the markets. As I and others have been pointing out, we’ve got a bifurcated world right now, with advanced economies still depressed but emerging economies in an inflationary boom; commodity prices are reflecting the boom part of the picture.

And

The below from The Age, Alan is the kind pointer, also highlight the trend of the commodity demand.

This is the China that McKinsey & Co sees when it projects that the country could build a new Chicago every year for the next two decades, including more than 1500 new skyscrapers more than 30 storeys high. By 2025, it says in a report, China is on track to have 219 cities of more than 1 million people and 24 cities larger than Sydney. In places like Chongqing, the odyssey from peasant to city resident, which comes with entering the international marketplace, is only halfway complete.

Every apartment block above about five storeys needs to be reinforced by steel. So too every rail tunnel and road bridge and the rolling stock and vehicles that speed along them. Each tonne of steel requires about 1.6 tonnes of iron ore and another 850 kilograms of high-quality "coking" coal - commodities that Australia has in quantities that most of the world can only dream of.

This is the seemingly inexorable urbanisation that BHP Billiton's Marius Kloppers, Rio Tinto's Tom Albanese and Fortescue's Andrew Forrest have in mind when they push through with breathtaking new expansions of their Pilbara iron ore mines. Last month, China imported 62 million tonnes of iron ore, 24 million tonnes of which was shipped directly from Australia.

P.S Today  Prof Krugman's NYT  article  and also in his blog  relevance  the above.

I am the greedy reader and thankful poster YSK-W

Grace of Sacrifices Or The Noble Savage?

This interesting article from Prof Brook in  here, it read as:

The United Nations report Livestock’s Long Shadow (LLS) came out in 2006 with an estimate that 18 percent of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are attributable to livestock. If you exclude deforestation emissions, then the number drops to 14 percent. Some 95 percent of these emissions are direct emissions of methane or nitrous oxide with just 5 percent being from associated energy use as shown in the table which is a contraction of a table from LLS.

Livestock Greenhouse Giga Tonnes

Emissions CO2-eq

Energy Related 0.16

Methane 2.20

Nitrous Oxide 2.20

The reason the energy emissions are so small is that almost no processing is included. The energy associated with the refrigerated meat chain from abattoir to consumer, cooking costs, energy to build the trucks that carry the animals and later the meat etc. None of this was included

Few days back, after I read this pointer, I asked Alan “what is a high-value” agricultural exports?” that would be cattle semen… for sure! He answered straight into the point. I then h=HOU….? And rolling bustling into floor laughing, I was belly Zulu dance! So I went bit of research I come across this and this Angus. They are indeed huge business; the below is PAPA Durabull 9805 from Ohide Cattles’ medallion of his superiority as:

Durabull is one of the few moderate birth, high milk, superior growth bulls with positive carcass and scrotal values. His exceptional marbling, ribeye, and percent retail product EPDs continue to make him one of the most useful carcass sires in the breed. His daughters possess above average volume and fleshing ability and further enhance his reputation as a great breeding bull. Durabull is deceased and semen is very limited. Please call or e-mail us for availability and price.

And I went over another Google search, this time  human sperm for sale, that also a huge business too. Then this is a human sperm bank,  all the these surrogacy you can imagine.This is Donor 4411 catalogue, it reads:  

“Donor 4411’s youthful exuberance fits perfectly with his love of sports. He grew up in a family of athletes, sports being an important part of everyone’s life. His father was a semi-professional soccer player, his mother a skier and cyclist. His sister is a competitive gymnast and recently began diving…”

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“… Donor 4411 possessed an inner light that seemed to radiate from him. His utter lack of ego or vanity is refreshing. He is energized and excited about life in general and enthusiastic to share stories about his life and family. He can quite simply be described as a breath of fresh air.

Sense of strangeness, and bit of eerie. It is a solemn! Former is for sacrifices later is for existence or sustainability. Strange, so one had to mulling over rendered their feelings religiously. Sens of irony and poignant, it moves deeply. You know human and cattle humble me. Thinking  over the cows’ eyes with deepest saddest huge sky in them in my home town. You find million years of our human sad endeavours and ingenuity for struggle for our very own existent. And unavoidable consequence, the holiness of natural arrangements.  A feeling of great compassion for our own existent and cattles’ noble obliges.

Thankful? According to this data  He is the Killer! What  comes around what  goes around the Kama!

I wonder who is going to win? What a race!  

P.S. Here and here affluent of effluent society. Our thinking should be affluent of effluences. Alan censures  my posting in here, so I have to carful not so mischief and not chiefly derail. All because of human therefore human! Origin of stinks! That is all I am saying!



YSK-W

Township Sinking Feeling

Here is one of a world leading Climate Change  expert  Prof  Barry Brook  insightful, past,  current and forward thinking and very  elucidatory  regarding Queensland flood.  

YSK-W

A Lofty and Poingant Arrow

This superb stuff comes with a lofty poignant arrow -- yes we are talking about our very own existence and extinctions – feed into your heart and soul as your food. We need it.

In Brief

• Food scarcity and the resulting higher food prices are pushing poor countries into chaos
• Such “failed states” can export disease, terrorism, illicit drugs, weapons and refugees.
• Water shortages, soil losses and rising temperatures from global warming are placing severe limits on food production

Many thanks for nice cupids  here and here, sharing always nice!


YSK-W

China Dreams the Glory Again!

In Power and Choice: Asian Security Futures we identified two sets of choices by regional political and military leaders as particularly important in determining how shifting power balances will shape Asia’s future security order. The sinking of the Cheonan and subsequent events highlight the impact both of immediate crisis responses and of long-term strategic choices that aim to secure a country’s place in the order that will emerge fromthe region’s present flux in great power relations.
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The strategic choices made by South Korea, the United States, Japan and other powers following the Cheonan sinking will have lasting repercussions for Asia’s emerging security order. They will reinforce the emerging balancing dynamics we identified in Power and Choice.

America’s alliances with South Korea and Japan have been strengthened, as has the strategic consensus among these three powers. This convergence has highlighted the importance of political values in informing the strategic choices states make – particularly when contrasted with China’s obstructive response. The fact that North Korea’s attack and China’s defensive response may be tied to succession plans in both authoritarian states further underlines this point. ...

Read more in here

China was one of the great civilizations, they are dreaming again that glory, they command your respect their cultural heritage. Lots of Westerns are fancy of doing business in Chinese without basics. Some are success some are not. They are doing business with only friends.  Chinese has done always better bargains even if with friends.  They never let their friends make money unless they make them first.  Chinese ask you what you can offer.  They are ruthless, intuitive and have great survival instincts and can be dark dark.  They judge you at first glance whether you are a friend or enemy.  One thing for sure they never take for grant how successful they are, as they have been learned painful lesson from not so-long-ago-horrid history. e.g. Great Leap forward and Culture Revolution etc...  40 million people died. They enjoy their economic and military power as they earned as they think they deserve them. Whatever others are saying, they have every intention of keeping them that will be many centuries.  I believed that Korean peninsular security is good for China as well, and then what is it? What make Chinese is not willing web into USA-ROK-Japan?    This era is not Ping Pong Diplomacy, as China doesn’t need much West as they used to be… they need something else.  I remember I had a dream; a black caterpillar was clawing down a room wall and turn into a huge black Chinese character....

YSK-W